it was amazing to see that though today nifty went up nearly 40 points but ce in jan series abv 6400 depreciated in its values and today was just beginning of new series...may be due to drop in jan Nifty fut prem but still jan fut was up 20 points from prev close.

does it indicate any trend for coming days???or is it simply due to reason that smart investor think that nifty may not see big upmove this series

option strategy for expiry day:

buy 6100ce jan series and 6100pe dec series when nf trades at near 6100 levels,if nifty moves up near 6120-30 range then book ce and hold pe,
if nifty moves down then book pe and ce near 6040 range,appreciation in 6100 pe will be much more than depreciation in 6100ce

if can hold patience try this strategy in later part of the day

RELIANCE DAILY CHARTS

some negative divergences are seen in 5 min intraday charts,may see nifty drifting towards 5930 again,if breaks below 5930 may target 5885-5890 levels...sl for intraday shorts made at 5971-5975 range can be brought down to 5980 levels,abv it nifty may try 6033 today

NIFTY KI KAHANI

After making lows of 2539 on mar 09,2009 nifty started its upmove and have seen meaningful corrections 4 times(closing below 55dema for more than 2 successive days)

date nifty hi date nifty low points corr

jun 12,09 4693 july 13,09 3919 774

oct 20,09 5182 nov 3,09 4539 643

jan 6,10 5311 feb 8,10 4675 636

apr 7,10 5400 may 25,10 4786 614


now if we consider 6339 highs made on nov 8 2010, and a correction of 600 points as nifty has closed below 55dema ,then we get a minimum target of 5739

will nifty repeat the same of near 600 points correction...lets wait and watch....

keeping fingers crossed as charts are indicating of strong supports near 5840-60 levels

i am expecting an intraday correction upto 5800 +/- 10 pts next week and a strong bounce from there for trgts 6033 next week,may not close below 5840

nifty daily chhanell charts for supports and resistances

NIFTY HOURLY CHARTS

Neo Economics

Amazing logic indeed....................This is a crazy world!

Interesting article written by an Indian Economist:

Japanese save a lot: They do not spend much. Also, Japan exports farmore than it imports. Has an annual trade surplus of over 100billions. Yet Japanese economy is considered weak, even collapsing.

Americans spend more, save little. Also US imports more than it exports.Has an annual trade deficit of over $400 billion. Yet, the American economy is considered strong and trusted to get stronger.

But where from do Americans get money to spend? They borrow from Japan, China and even India. Virtually others save for the US to spend. Global savings are mostly invested in US, in dollars.

India itself keeps its foreign currency assets of over $50 billions in US securities. China has sunk over $160 billion in US securities. Japan's stakes in US securities is in trillions.


Result: The US has taken over $5 trillion from the world. So, as the world saves for the US - Its The Americans who spend freely. Today, to keep the US consumption going, that is for the US economy to work, other countries have to remit $180 billion every quarter, which is $2
billion a day, to the US!

A Chinese economist asked a neat question. Who has invested more, US in China, or China in US? The US has invested in China less than half of what China has invested in US.

The same is the case with India. We have invested in US over $50 billion. But the US has invested less than $20 billion in India.


Why the world is after US? : The secret lies in the American spending, that they hardly save. In
fact they use their credit cards to spend their future income. That the US spends is what makes it attractive to export to the US. So US imports more than what it exports year after year.


The result: The world is dependent on US consumption for its growth. By its deepening culture of consumption, the US has habituated the world to feed on US consumption. But as the US needs money to finance its consumption, the world provides the money.

It's like a shopkeeper providing the money to a customer so that the customer keeps buying from the shop. If the customer will not buy, the shop won't have business, unless the shopkeeper funds him. The US is like the lucky customer. And the world is like the helpless shopkeeper
financier.

Who is America's biggest shopkeeper financier? Japan of course. Yet it's Japan which is regarded as weak. Modern economists complain that Japanese do not spend, so they do not grow. To force the Japanese to spend, the Japanese government exerted itself, reduced the savings rates, even charged the savers. Even then the Japanese did not spend (habits don't change, even with taxes, do they?). Their traditional postal savings alone is over $1.2 trillions, about three times the Indian GDP. Thus, savings, far from being the strength of Japan, has become its pain.


Hence, what is the lesson?: That is, a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save. Not just spend, but borrow and spend. Dr. Jagdish Bhagwati, the famous Indian-born economist in the US, told Manmohan Singh that Indians wastefully save. Ask them to spend, on imported cars and, seriously, even on cosmetics! This will put India on a growth curve. This is one of the reason for MNC's coming down to India, seeing the consumer spending.

'Saving is sin, and spending is virtue.'

But before you follow this Neo Economics, get some to save so that you can borrow from them and spend !

source:a friend

nifty 30 min charts

nifty daily charts

EVENTFUL WEEK AHEAD

1ST NOV-5TH NOV.

NEXT WEEK MARKETS MAY REMAIN IN TIGHT RANGE AHEAD OF FED MEET ON 3RD NOV.,AND ALSO U.S MIDTERM ELECTIONS ON 2ND NOV.

ON 3RD NOV Mr.BERNANKE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE DETAILS OF QE2

RBI WILL ALSO ANNOUNCE ITS QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY ON 2ND NOV AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RATES UNCHANGED OR AT MAXIMUM THEY MAY INCREASE @25BPS SO MAY TURNOUT TO BE A NON EVENT BUT ANY POSITIVE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM RBI CHAIRMAN MAY SEE SOME BULLISHNESS

MARKETS WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON 5TH NOVEMBER DUE TO DIWALI HOLDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A ONE HOUR SPECIAL MUHURAT TRADING SESSION BETWEEN 6PM AND 7 PM

COAL INDIA LISTING ON 4TH NOVEMBER

STOCKS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK:CUMMINS,GLENMARK,MARUTI,DLF,DISH TV,UNITECH

Month of November has historically seen huge NIFTY volatility as can be seen from the table [refer below]
NIFTY on an average has witnessed an absolute average move of about 12.9%
Thus for Nov-2010, we may expect the NIFTY to witness similar trend as in the past.

Date: Abs Volatility %(High/Low)
30/11/1999 14.4
30/11/2000 8.8
29/11/2001 12.7
29/11/2002 11.7
28/11/2003 8.0
30/11/2004 10.5
30/11/2005 15.2
30/11/2006 6.4
30/11/2007 11.4
28/11/2008 29.5
30/11/2009 13.2

Average: 12.9

Maximum: 29.5

Minimum: 6.4

source: a friend

NIFTY DAILY CHARTS