NS VIEWS:

RES:5283-5299-5311
SUP:5244-5222-5195

BUY ABOVE 5268 SL 5252 FOR TRGTS 5283-5299 -5311
SELL BELOW 5252 SL 5268 FOR TRGTS 5244-5222-5195

TOMM NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5222-5283 RANGE.
IF TOMORROW NIFTY DOES NOT FALL BELOW 5244 THEN EXPECT NIFTY TO SEE TARGETS OF 5299-5303 RANGE WHERE NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABV 5316 FOR TRGTS 5283-5269

AND IF COULD NOT MOVE ABOVE 5274 THEN EXPECT NIFTY TO SEE TARGETS OF 5210-5197 WHERE NIFTY IS A BUY WITH SL BELOW 5180 FOR TARGETS 5222-5244-5268..

GUESS NIFTY MAY CLOSE NEAR 5255-5268..A DOJI IN CANDLESTICK CHARTS

NIFTY WILL BE WEAK AND SHORTS CAN BE CARRIED FOR NEXT DAY IF CLOSES BELOW 5222 AND WILL FAVOUR BULLS IF CLOSE ABOVE 5299 CAN CARRY LONG POSITIONS AS BTST.

WE EXPECT NIFTY TO TRADE AND CONSOLIDATE FOR 5-6 DAYS IN RANGE OF 5183-5330 NOW BE4 BREAKOUT FOR 5420-5447,MEANTIME THE ACTION MAY SHIFT FROM LARGE CAPS TO SELECT MIDCAPS AND SMALL CAPS.

TOMORROW BEING 31ST MARCH ,ITS 2009-2010 FIN YEAR CLOSURE SO PLZ BE CAUTIOUS IN SHORT POSN NEAR END OF DAY AS THESE MUTUAL FUND GUYS MAY JACK UP PRICES TO PROPELL THEIR NAV NEAR CLOSING TIME .TODAY ALTHOUGH MKTS CLOSED IN RED,FII AND DII WERE NET BUYERS.

NS VIEWS(30TH MARCH):

RES:5322-5336-5350
SUP:5286-5269-5252

BUY ABOVE 5308 WITH SL 5297 FOR TARGETS 5322-5336-5350
SELL BELOW 5297 WITH SL 5308 FOR TARGETS 5286-5269-5252

TODAY NIFTY IF OPENS WITH POSITIVE BIAS AND TRADE ABOVE 5308-5315 THEN MAY RETEST TODAYS HI OF 5330 FROM THERE IT MAY CORRECT TILL 5308-5302 RANGE AND THEN MAY AGAIN MOVE UP ,BUT IF TRADES ABOVE 5330 AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5336 WILL SEE CHANNELL RESISTANCE AT 5350-5356 RANGE WHICH WILL BE STIFF RESISTANCE TO CROSS INTRADAY THERE NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABOVE 5384( IN THIS UPMOVE NIFTY CAN SEE AN UPMOVE TILL 5368-5376) FOR TRGTS 5330-5315-5297

IF OPENS BELOW 5297 AND DOES NOT MOVE ABOVE 5297 IN FIRST 15 MINUTES THEN NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL OF 5330 FOR TARGETS 5269-5252-5237 INTRADAY.

THOUGH NIFTY IS MOVING UP BUT BROADER MARKETS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE UPMOVE, DECLINING STOCKS ARE FAR MORE THAN ADVANCING STOCKS, WHICH MARKS FOR CAUTION AT HIGHS.

NS VIEWS(29TH MARCH):

RES:5302-5311-5320
SUP:5274-5252-5235

BUY ABOVE 5288 WITH SL 5274 FOR TARGETS 5294-5302-5311
SELL BELOW 5274 WITH SL 5288 FOR TARGETS 5262-5252-5241

TOMMORROW NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY REMAIN CHOPPY AND TRADE IN 5262-5302 RANGE,

TOMMORROW IF AFTER OPEN NIFTY DIPS THEN MAY GET INITIAL SUPPORT AT 5262 WHERE NIFTY IS A BUY WITH SL BELOW 5252,BUT IF IT BREAKS BELOW 5252 THEN 5235-40 RANGE IS VERY STRONG SUPPORT INTRA WHERE NIFTY IS AGAIN A BUY FOR INTRADAY WITH SL BELOW 5220 FOR TRGTS 5252-5274-5288

AND IF AFTER OPENS MOVE UP THEN MAY FACE STIFF RESISTANCE NEAR 5302-5311 WHERE NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABOVE 532O FOR TRGTS 5288-5274-5262

O.I DATA:
NIFTY 5300CE HAS HIGHEST O.I AT 37.5 LAKHS SHARES AND NEXT IS IN 5400CE OF 37.2 LAKHS SHARES.IN CALLS 5400 CE SAW MAXIMUM ADDITION IN O.I OF 12.6 LAKHS SHARES.
WHILE IN PUTS 5000PE HAS HIGHEST O.I OF 43.8LAKHS SHARES AND NEXT IS IN 5200PE OF 40.4 LAKHS AND STRANGELY 5300PE SAW MAXIMUM ADDITION ON FRIDAY IN O.I OF 7.4 LAKH SHARES INDICATING 5300 NOW TO BE CRITICAL AS BREAK ABOVE 5320-40 WILL INVITE HUGE SHORT COVERING AND IF COULD NOT SUSTAIN ABOVE 5300 THIS WEEK MAY INITIATE SOME FRESH SHORTS AND SOME LONGS MAY ALSO SEE SOME PROFIT BOOKING.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

RES:5311-5336-5360
SUP:5252-5220-5183

NEXT WEEK NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5336-5183 RANGE WITH SOME CHOPPY DAYS OF LOW RANGE.
NIFTY HAVE COMPLETED SEVEN WEEKS OF CONTINUOUS UPMOVE (MAKING HIGHER HIGHS)FROM LOWS OF 4675,AND COMING WEEK MAY ALSO SEE NIFTY MAKING HIGHER HIGH THUS MAKING IT 8TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK WHICH IS A FIBO NUMBER AND MARKS FOR SOME CAUTION AHEAD.

NEXT WEEK NIFTY HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN 5220-5235 RANGE,IF BREAKS BELOW THAT NS HAS VERY STRONG SUPPORT AT 5198-5183 RANGE..NIFTY
HAS INITIAL RESISTANCE AT PREVIOUS HIGHS OF 5211 AND ABOVE THAT IF SUSTAINS MAY SEE NIFTY GETTING RESISTANCE IN 5336-5353 RANGE

NEXT WEEK BUY NIFTY NEAR LOWS AT 5200-5210 WITH SL BELOW 5150 FOR TGTS 5280 AND SELL NIFTY IN 5320-5340 RANGE WITH SL ABV 5376..INTRADAY TRADERS MAY NOT GET MANY OPPORTUNIYIES AS NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO TRADE VERY CHOPPY AND IN SMALL RANGES ON SOME DAYS..

TILL NIFTY DOES NOT CLOSE BELOW 5169 FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS ITS BUY ON EVERY DIPS AND ALSO DAILY INDICATORS SHOWING SOME NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES AND OVERBOUGHT STAGE CALLS FOR CAUTION AT HIGHS.

MUST READ:

RECESSION IN THE DESI HYDERABADI WAY :


Khaja Bhai is the proprietor of a small Nehari ki hotel at Madina building, Hyderabad .
Sales are low and, in order to increase them, he comes up with a plan to allow his customers to eat now and pay later. He keeps track of the meals consumed on a ledger. Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flock to Khaja Bhai’s Hotel.
Khaja Bhai's suppliers (gosh wala, kulche wala etc etc) are delighted and are very willing to sell more and more raw materials for the meals he prepares. Khaja Bhai shows them his ledger of receivables and they extend him credit.
A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and gives Khaja Bhai a credit line and then increases his borrowing limit. Taking advantage of his customers' freedom from immediate payment constraints, Khaja Bhai jacks up the prices of his Nehari, Kulche, Jabde, Paaye and Zabaan. Customers don't mind the increased prices, as they are not required to pay on the spot anyway.
Sales volume increases massively, Banks and suppliers lend more; Khaja Bhai opens several branches across Abids, Basheerbagh & Secunderabad. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the customers as collateral.
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert bankers recognize Khaja's customer loans as assets and transform these into BONDS. These negotiable instruments are given exotic names such as JABDA BOND, PAAYA BOND, ZABAAN BOND AND KULCHA BOND. These securities are then listed on the Stock Exchange and traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what the names mean and how the securities are guaranteed, but, nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items.
One day, although the prices are still climbing, a credit risk manager of the bank decides that the time has come to demand payment of one of the debts incurred by Khaja Bhai. Khaja in turn asks his clients to pay up. One by one they refuse; the clients cannot pay back the debts. Khaja Bhai refuses to serve them anymore. The clients stop coming.
He is really screwed now. He cannot fulfill his loan obligations and therefore claims bankruptcy. All Bonds drop in price by between 80 to 95%.
The suppliers of Khaja, having granted generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with similar problems. The Meat Supplier defaults on payment to the Cattle Supplier and claims bankruptcy. The Kulche Ka Aata supplier is taken over by a competitor; Khaja Bhai lays off the cook and staff.
Bankruptcies soar, unemployment mushrooms.
The bank that lent the money in the first place is set to collapse. It is later saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties with Khaja Bhai commuting back and forth in his Executive Jet and Mercedes 500SEL, brokering the deal.
The funds required to save the economic collapse are obtained by a tax levied on the common citizens, Most Of Whom Do not Eat Nehari, Zabaan, Sirey or Paye...!!!

source: a well wisher

WEEKEND READING:

Project Manager is a Person who thinks nine women can deliver a baby in One month.

Developer is a Person who thinks it will take 18 months to deliver a Baby.

Onsite Coordinator is one who thinks single woman can deliver nine babies in one month.

Client is the one who doesn't know why he wants a baby.

Marketing Manager is a person who thinks he can deliver a baby even if no man and woman are available.

Resource Optimization Team thinks they don't need a man or woman; they'll produce a child with zero resources.

Documentation Team thinks they don't care whether the child is delivered, they'll just document 9 months.

Quality Auditor is the person who is never happy with a delivered baby.

Tester is a person who always tells that this is not the Right baby.


HR Manager is a person who thinks that...
a Donkey can deliver a Human Baby - if given 9 Months !!!

NS VIEWS(26TH MARCH):

RES:5288-5311-5336
SUP:5256-5240-5222

BUY ABV 5269 SL 5240 FOR TGTS 5288-5311,IF TRADES AND SUSTAINS ABV 5311 THEN MAY SEE SWIFT UPMOVE TOWARDS 5356-5360 IN COMING DAYS

SELL BELOW 5240 WITH SL ABV 5269 FOR TGTS 5222-5211.

TOMMORROW ON STRONG GLOBAL CUES NIFTY MAY OPEN GAPUP ABV 5274..THEN MAY SEE TGTS OF 5288-5311 WITH 5269-5274 AS INTRADAY SUPPORT.TILL NIFTY DOES NOT BREAK AND CLOSE BELOW 5240 ITS BUY ON EVERY DIP NEAR 5240.

IN APRIL SERIES NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN UPMOVE TILL 5450+/-20PTS(WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH DOWS TGTS OF 11111-1133)WHERE IT MAY FACE STIFF RESISTANCE.FROM THERE EXPECT SOME CORRECTION TO SET IN TILL 5183 LEVELS.IF NIFTY BREAKS BELOW 5183 THEN EXPECT SOME PANIC TO SET IN FOR TRGTS 4750.

I EXPECT NIFTY TO MOVE UP TILL 11TH APRIL FOR 5450 TRGTS AND THEN NIFTY MAY START ITS CORRECTION AS FOURTH QUARTER RESULTS WILL START COMING OUT.

IN VERY SHORT TERM NIFTY MAY MOVE UP TILL 5336-5360 FROM WHERE SOME CORRECTION OF 80-100 PTS IS EXPECTED AND THEN MAY START UPMOVE FOR 5450 TILL 11TH APRIL.

STORY OF MONKEY AND THE MERCHANT


Once upon a time, there was a Merchant. He came to a nearby village where there were lots and lots of monkeys. The villagers were irritated with the monkeys. That fine day when the merchnat came to that village, he had an offer for the villagers. An attractive offer.

He offered the villagers that he will buy monkeys from them @ Rs.10 per monkey. The villagers were happy. They started catching monkeys and sell them to the merchant. The merchant would keep the monkeys in a cage for the purpose.

After some days, the merchant offered Rs.20 per monkey. The villagers were happy again. They started catching more and more monkeys to sell them to the merchant. Now what happened is that the number of monkeys in the village started reducing.

Now, the merchant offered Rs.30 per monkey. Till this tine, all the moneys in the village were with the merchant. So , the villagers started catching them from nearby villages. After some days, all the monkeys in the region were with the merchant. All was going fine till now.

Now the merchant offered Rs.100 per monkey. But the villagers were not happy as there was hardly any monkey that they can sell. Then , the merchant informed the villagers that he had to go back to the city for a week and asked the villagers to carry on the dealing with his agent who came over there.

The merchant returned back to the city. Here, in the village, the agent had another deal with the villagers. He offered that he will sell them the monkeys with him @ Rs.75 and advised them to sell those back to the merchant @ Rs.100 when he comes back. The villagers were damn happy. They started buying the monkeys and in less than a week, all the monkeys were sold. Then, the agent returned back to the city.

That day onwards, neither the merchant returned to the village nor the agent.

This is nothing but story of stock market where, the Merchant are the Big Players in the market and the brokers are their agents, the monkeys are the Share and the villagers are the poor small shareholder.

NS VIEWS(25TH MARCH):

RES:5237-5249-5274
SUP:5211-5194-5183

TODAY NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5249-5183 RANGE,TODAY BEING DERIVATIVE EXPIRY MAY SEE SOME VOLATILITY AFTER 12:30PM,TILL THEN MAY TRADE IN 5211-5237 RANGE


BUY ABV 5229 WITH SL 5221 FOR TRGTS 5237-5249, SELL NIFTY NEAR 5245-49 WITH SL 5259 OR BUY 5300PE(WITH 10PT SL) FOR TGTS 5237-5225-5216,IF SL HIT REVERSE THE TRADE WITH SL 5249 FOR TGTS 5274

SELL BELOW 5221 WITH SL 5229 FOR TRGTS 5216-5205-5194,BELOW 5194 MAY FIND INTRADAY SUPPORT NEAR 5176-5183 LEVELS...BUY NIFTY NEAR 5194-98 RANGE WITH SL BELOW 5176 FOR TGTS 5208-5225-5237

EXPIRY MAY BE NEAR 5200 +/- 10 POINTS

US stocks rise to new 18-month highs
Stocks rallied on Tuesday, led by the tech, industrial and materials sectors, driving the Dow and the S&P 500 to 18-month highs



The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 102.94 points, or 0.95 percent, to 10,888.83. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 8.36 points, or 0.72 percent, to 1,174.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC shot up 19.84 points, or 0.83 percent, to 2,415.24.

The Dow chalked up its 10th day of gains out of the past 11 sessions.

The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC ended at its highest level since August 18, 2008, or about a month before Lehman Brothers collapsed during the credit crisis.



Forex reserves shrink $375 mn as value of gold dips

Foreign exchange reserve dipped $375 million during the week ended February 26 to touch $278.4 billion. This was partly on account of revaluation of non-dollar assets and partly on account of dip in the value of gold in reserves.

According to the latest data released by RBI, both foreign currency assets as well as value of gold in reserves dipped $212 million and $136 million, respectively. While SDR (special drawing rights, the reserve currency with IMF) rose $26 million and $7 million, respectively.



India loses Rs 10 lakh crore from black economy every year

According to the latest estimate of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), the size of the Indian economy is around Rs 61,64,000 crore. Thus, the size of the black economy, taking it at 40% of GDP, is around Rs 25,00,000 crore or around $500 billion.

If black money is declared by individuals or corporate houses as income, it becomes legal and would be taxed at 30%. If all the estimated black money is declared, it could generate a tax revenue of Rs 7,50,000 crore for the government! This is more than total tax collection at Rs 6,41,000 crore for 2009-10. Kumar puts the potential tax revenue figure much higher at around Rs 10,00,000 crore.

NS VIEWS:
RES:5221-5239-5252
SU:5191-5176-5161

TOMM NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5176-5252 RANGE

BUY ABOVE 5214 SL 5191 FOR TGTS 5221-5239-5252,IF TRADE AND SUSTAINS ABOVE 5252 MAY TGT 5274

SELL BELOW 5191-SL 5214 FOR TGTS 5176-5161-5148,IF TRADES AND SUSTAINS BELOW 5148 NIFTY MAY DRIFT LOWER TO EVEN 5090 LEVELS IN QUICK TIME

TOMM NIFTY IF AT OPEN MOVES UP WILL FACE RESISTANCE NEAR 5221 LEVELS,MAY AGAIN CORRECT TO 5203 LEVELS AND THEN MOVES UP FOR 5239-5245-5252 WHERE NITY CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABOVE 5261 FOR TGTS 5221-5198-5176 LEVELS,IF SL HIT BUY NIFTY WITH SL BELOW 5252 FOR 5274-5288

IF AFTER OPENS IT DRIFTS LOWER MAY FIND STRONG SUPP NEAR 5180-5176 RANGE WHERE NIFTY IS A BUY WITH SL 5161 FOR TGTS 5214-5239-5252..IF SL HIT REVERSE THE TRADE WITH SL ABV 5176 FOR 5148

NS VIEWS:(22/3/2010)

RES:5274-5288-5298
SUP:5245-5222-5203

BUY ABOVE 5269 SL 5245 FOR TGTS 5274-5288
SELL BELOW 5245 SL 5261 FOR TGTS 5222-5203

TOMMORROW NIFTY MAY OPEN WEAK NEAR 5245-5233 LEVELS AND MAY DRIFT DOWN LOWER TO 5222-5214 LEVELS FROM WHERE AN INTRADAY BOUNCE IS EXPECTED TO 5245 -5252 LEVELS,FROM THERE AGAIN SOME SELLING MAY COME WHICH MAY SEE NIFTY FALLING TO 5203-5192 LEVELS WHICH WILL FORM A STRONG SUPPORT,AND NIFTY MAY AGAIN BOUNCE FROM THERE FOR TARGETS 5222-5245

IF NIFTY DOES NOT FALL BELOW 5245 AT OPEN THEN EXPECT A BOUNCE TO TEST 5256-5261 RANGE,IF BREAKSOUT ABOVE 5261 AND SUSTAINS ABV IT THEN MAY TEST 5274-5288 LEVELS.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

RES:5274-5298-5337
SUP:5222-5184-5148

THIS WEEK BEING DERIVATIVE EXPIRY(25TH MARCH) AND TRUNCATED ALSO AS HOLIDAY ON 24TH DUE TO RAMNAVMI EXPECT NIFTY TO BE VERY VOLATILE.
MAY OPEN ON SOME WEAK NOTE BUT WILL RECOVER VERY FAST AND EXPECT NIFTY TO CROSS PREV HIGHS OF 5269 IN THIS SERIES.(CAUTION:PLZ KEEP A STRICT WATCH ON DOLLAR INDEX AS ITS MOVING UP AGAIN AND ANY BREAK ABOVE 81.7 MAY SEE SHORT SQUEEZE IN IT WHICH CAN TAKE IT TO NEW HIGHS OF 83.7-87.1 LVLS,BULLISHNESS IN DOLLAR INDEX WILL MAKE EQUITY MARKETS WEAK...ESP COMMODITY STOCKS)

IF THIS WEEK NIFTY BREAKS ABOVE 5274 AND MOVES UPTO 5337,IT CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABOVE 5373 FOR TARGETS 5220-5148-5110 IN NEXT 2 WEEKS.IF BREAKS AND CLOSE ABV 5373 FOR 2 SUCCESSIVE DAYS THEN EXPECT NIFTY TO TEST 5420-5492-5555 IN NEXT 3-4 WEEKS.

BUT IF NIFTY COULD NOT MOVE ABOVE 5274 AND DRIFTS DOWN BELOW 5148 THIS WEEK ON GLOBAL CUES IF ANY(MAY BE DOLLAR BREAKOUT, THIS WEEK BEING EXPIRY WEEK NIFTY MAY OR MAY NOT FOLLOW GLOBAL TRENDS SO PLZ TRADE WITH CAUTION AND STRICT SL)THEN EXPECT NIFTY TO TEST 5080-4989 LEVELS SOON.EXPECT NIFTY TO TRADE WITH HIGH VOLATILITY IN COMING WEEKS.

RBI ups repo, reverse repo rates by 0.25%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has hiked the repo and reverse repo rate by 25 basis points (100 bps=1%). The new repo and reverse repo rate is 5% and 3.5%, respectively. The hike comes into effect immediately.

The rate at which the central bank lends money to commercial banks is called the repo rate while the reverse repo is the rate at which RBI borrows money from bank

The central bank promises to take further action as and when warranted. "We continue to monitor macro conditions and the price situation. The steps undertaken will help anchor inflationary expectations and contain inflation," RBI said in a statement.

The Reserve Bank is hiking rates in small doses as it does not want to hurt growth, Kaushik Basu, Economic Advisor to the Finance Ministry, told Reuters. "RBI rate hike is aimed at curbing and significantly anchoring inflationary expectations. Inflation was seen spilling over to manufacturing. The real economy is strong, so a rate hike will not hurt industrial output. This is a signal that though growth is an imperative, inflation is a concern."

Basu said, "Going forward, I am not ruling out another rate hike, but that depends on the data relating to the prevailing inflationary situation."

10-15% mkt rise in a month not good for India: Blackstone

Being within striking distance of 5,300—the January highs, the S&P Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) has been witnessing huge amount of volatility since the past one week. Standard & Poor's has lifted its outlook on India to stable from negative, citing an improving fiscal position and strong economic growth. This is likely to boost market sentiment.

Punita Kumar Sinha of Blackstone though saw confidence building towards India, she, however, felt that a 10-15% rise in the markets in a month might not be good for the country. “The valuations are a bit more stretched and depend on growth,” she said, adding that ample liquidity and strong demand was triggering growth.

Mkts to trade sideways for a while: Macquarie

Macquarie Capital Securities has a positive bias on India and sees the US economy improving. In an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18, Mark Matthews of Macquarie Capital Securities said Indian markets should continue to trade sideways. He remains bulish on dollar.

NS VIEWS:

RES:5261-5274-5288
SUP:5237-5214-5203

BUY ABOVE 5252 SL 5243
SELL BELOW 5243 SL 5252

TOMMOROW NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5203-5274 RANGE,IF TRADE ABOVE 5274 THEN 5288-5298 MAY BE TRGTS..BELOW 5203 MAY GET SUPPORT IN 5180-5192 RANGE.

TODAY BEING AN INSIDE DAY AND TOMORROW BEING WEEKEND AND ROLLOVER MAY ALSO START FOR NEXT SERIES EXPECT SOME VOLATILE MOVE TOMORROW

TOMMORROW NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY DRIFT DOWN TO 5215-5203 RANGE ,THERE BUY NF WITH SL BELOW 5192 FOR TRGTS 5237-5252-5261-5274,,IF SL HITS SELL NIFTY BELOW 5180 WITH SL 5192

IF NIFTY OPENS WITH POSITIVE BIAS AND MOVES UP THEN EXIT LONG POSITION NEAR 5274-5288 RANGE WHERE NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABOVE 5311 FOR 5261-5245-5237-5214

IF NS CLOSES ABOVE 5261 THEN NIFTY MAY SEE NU 52 WEEK HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK,

FII BOUGHT 1106 CR IN F&O.
FII BOUGHT 485 CR IN CASH
DII SOLD 53 CR

IN MARCH 2010 FII HAVE BEEN BUYING CONTINUOUSLY AND DII ARE NET SELLERS...LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED WAS IN SEP-OCT 2007 WHEN NIFTY MOVED UP NEARLY 20%

S&P REVISES INDIA OUTLOOK FROM NEGATIVE TO STABLE
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Thursday said that it revised the outlook on India to stable from negative. At the same time, S&P affirmed the 'BBB-' long-term and 'A-3' short-term sovereign credit ratings on India
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/sp-revises-india-outlooknegative-to-stable_447526.html

Don't see value in equities, commodities: UBS

Bhanu Baweja of UBS expects a come back of the Euro sell trade. “We think the Euro-Dollar should head towards 1.33.”Baweja feels equities and commodities are fully valued currently. “We don’t see value in equities and commodities.”
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/inflation-riskindia-very-serious-says-ubs_447483.html

FII BOUGHT 1531 CR IN & F & O
FII BOUGHT 816 CR IN CASH
DII SOLD 298 CR

NS VIEWS:
RES:5245-5261-5274
SUP:5225-5203-5177

TODAY NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5203-5274 RANGE

BUY ABOVE 5239 SL 5225
SELL BELOW 5225 SL 5239

ON 17TH MARCH SURPRISINGLY NIFTY 5300PE SAW AN ADDITION OF O.I OF 18.2 LAKHS (5200PE ALSO SAW AN ADDITION OF O.I OF 15 LAKHS) AS YET NF IS BELOW 5300 AND 5300CE ALSO SAW AN ADDITION OF O.I OF 10LAKHS..

WILL BULLS LIKE TO CLOSE THIS MARCH SERIES NEAR 5300????

5274-5298-5337 MAY GIVE RESISTANCE TO NIFTY UPMOVE IN COMING DAYS,IT MAY CONSOLIDATE IN 5337-5150 RANGE BEFORE GIVING FURTHER BREAKOUT FOR HIGHER TARGETS OF 5420-5492.

AS DOW TODAY ALSO CROSSED ITS PREVIOUS 52 WK HIGH ALA NASDAQ AND EUROPEAN MARKETS....ASIAN MARKETS MAY SOON FOLLOW AND MAY BREAK THEIR PREVIOUS 52WK HIGHS...

FIIS HAVE BEEN HUGE BUYERS SINCE BUDGET DAY,SO FOR ANY REVERSAL WATCH THEIR DAILY TRADE FIGURES CLOSELY.
INDIA VIX WAS AT 17.73 ALL TIME LOWS INDICATING MARKETS ARE HIGHLY OVERBOUGHT AND MAY SEE SOME CORRECTION ,ONLY IF CLOSE BELOW 5150 THIS CORRECTION WILL BECOME FALL TILL THEN BUY ON DIPS AND TRADE INTRADAY WITH STRICT SL..

I EXPECT NIFTY TO TRADE IN 5203-5337-5148-5284 THIS SERIES...MAY SEE CLOSE ABV 5250 THIS SERIES..
THIS VIEW WILL BE NEGATED IF NS CLOSES BELOW 5148 ANYDAY OR NS COULD NOT BREAK 5274 IN NEXT 2 DAYS

NS VIEWS(16 MARCH,2010)

RES:5145-5161-5177
SUP:5099-5061-5037

TODAY NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5161-5061 RANGE WITH HUGE VOLATILITY..
BUY ABOVE 5135 WITH SL 5122 FOR TGTS 5145-5153-5161
SELL BELOW 5122 WITH SL 5135 FOR TGTS 5099-5080-5061

CLOSE MAY BE NEAR 5080 +/-10 POINTS

IN 30 MIN CHARTS NIFTY IS MAKING A HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WITH CURRENT NECKLINE AT 5102 AND HEAD OF 58 POINTS,IF TRADES BELOW 5102 AND SUSTAINS THEN EXPECT TGTS OF 5044 IN NEXT 2 DAYS.

ON 15TH INDIA VIX BOUNCED FROM ALL TIME LOWS INDICATING SOME WEAKNESS MAY CONTINUE TILL 5030-5020 LEVELS FROM WHERE SOME BOUNCE MAY BE EXPECTED AGAIN.

TODAY NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED IF TRADE BELOW 5122 FOR TRGTS 5102-5061.IF CLOSES BELOW 5080 THEN EXPECT 5030-5020 IN NEXT 2 DAYS,IF BREAKS 5020 THEN MAY SEE SOME MORE CORRECTION TILL 4947-4880 LEVELS,BUT IF BOUNCES MAY RETEST 5138-55 RANGE AGAIN AND THEN HEAVY CORRECTION MAY START FOR 4947-4880 LEVELS...
BEARISH VIEWS WILL BE NEGATED IF CLOSE ABOVE 5183 FOR 2 SUCCESSIVE DAYS

NS VIEWS(15TH MARCH,2010)

RES:5161-5177-5190
SUP:5116-5092-5069

TOMMORROW NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT WITH NEGATIVE BIAS,MAY FIND IMMEDIATE SUPP AT 5121-16 RANGE,IF 5116 IS NOT SUSTAINED THEN NEXT STRONTG SUPPORT IS AT 5092-5088 RANGE..FROM THERE AN INTRADAY BOUNCE IS EXPECTED BUY NIFTY WITH SL 5064 FOR TGTS 5138-5161-5168LEVELS,WHERE AGAIN NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABV 5183 FOR TGTS 5138-5116..EXPECTED CLOSE MAY BE NEAR 5138+/- 10 POINTS.

IF OPENS POSITIVE THEN CAN MOVE UPTO 5161-68 WHERE NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED FOR TGTS 5138-5116-5092..BUY NIFTY NEAR 5092-5088 RANGE FOR TGTS 5116-5138-5151

IF NS CLOSES BELOW 5116 THEN SHORT POSITIONS CAN BE CARRIED FOR NEXT DAY WITH SL ABOVE 5161..IF CLOSES ABV 5161 THEN LONG POSITIONS CAN BE CARRIED WITH SL BELOW 5138

BE CAUTIOUS AT HIGHER LEVELS NEAR 5190-5225 LEVELS IN COMING DAYS AS SOME SWIFT CORRECTION MAY COME,MAY SEE SOME HUGE VOLATILE DAYS TILL EXPIRY OF MARCH SERIES.

TRADE WITH STRICT SL AND CARRY OVER OF POSITION ARE ADVICED ONLY WITH HEDGING POSITIONS.

Why is Jim Rogers Sceptical of India’s Future?

Investor and Adventure Capitalist Jim Rogers remains deeply sceptical of India’s future. In an interview with Forbes India, he argues the country is sitting on a fiscal time bomb.

The finance minister has changed the direction of India’s budget deficit by reducing the target for 2010-11 to 5.5 percent.
You really believe it will happen? Go back over the years and see their previous claims.

He has got a lot of praise for that in India. Still you are not impressed. Why?
Even if it happens, it is not being done by sound budgeting. It is from selling off the family jewels if it happens.

Don’t you think a high deficit was justified last year when the government had to spend and help the economy revive?
No. They are just trying to push the problems out into the future rather than solving the underlying problems. Do you really think the solution for a problem of too much debt and too much consumption is more debt and more consumption?

Are we not living in extraordinary times when we have to follow such flexible policies?
We are indeed. They are making the problems worse in extraordinary times which require tough measures to correct decades of abuse.

The finance minister rolled back some of the economic stimulus measures he had announced last year. Would you have preferred to see a complete rollback than a partial one?
Yes. And more.

If you were to set an agenda for the government, what would that be?
Cut spending and subsidies dramatically. Many studies have shown that countries start having serious growth problems when debt is 90 percent of GDP (gross domestic product). India is now [at] 80 percent and will be [at] 90 percent soon under this budget. The subsidies distort the economy in less productive areas

FOR FULL INTERVIEW
http://business.in.com/interview/special-report/why-is-jim-rogers-sceptical-of-indias-future/11122/1

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

RES:5183-5225-5277
SUP:5092-5040-4988

NEXT WEEK NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO TRADE IN 5225-5040 RANGE..WITH HIGHER VOLATILITY IN COMING DAYS AFTER RANGEBOUND TRADING DAYS LAST WEEK.

AS IT IS EVIDENT FROM OVERBOUGHT LEVELS AND INDIA VIX AT ALL TIME LOWS IT SEEMS THAT NIFTY IS VEY MUCH NEAR TO ITS IMMEDIATE PEAK AND MAY FACE STIFF RESISTANCE IN 5177-83 RANGE,ABV THAT IF BREAKS MAY SEE IT MOVE UPTO 5218-25 WHERE NIFTY WILL BE ROYAL SHORT WITH SL ABV 5277..

NIFTY WILL BE WEAK AND MAY DRIFT DOWNSIDE IF CLOSES BELOW 5116..BELOW 5116 MAY SEE SOME SUPP NEAR 5092 AND THEN NEAR 5040..WHERE AGAIN SOME BUYING IS EXPECTED TO COME FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UPMOVE TILL 5150 BY THE END OF THE WEEK

IF 5040-20 LEVELS ARE BROKEN THEN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SELLING TO COME WITH SUPPORTS AT 4988 AND 4947

IN MARCH SERIES 5100CE HAS HIGHEST O.I WITH 76.5 LAKHS AND THEN 5200CE HAS O.I POSITION OF 62.7LAKHS.THEY SAW AN ADDITION OF 12.8 LAKHS AND 13.7 LAKHS RESPECTIVELY.
WHILE 5000PE HAS HIGHEST O.I WITH 1.21 CRORES AND NEXT IS 5100PE WITH O.I POSITION OF 68 LAKHS.THEY SAW AN ADDITION OF 62K AND 3.1 LAKHS SHARES RESPECTIVELY.
AFTER MANY DAYS NIFTY CALLS ADDED MORE O.I YHAN PUTS INDICATING SOME SELLING MAY BE SEEN NEAR 5180-5220 WITH SUPPORTS AGAIN NEAR 4980-5020,NOW ONLY BREAK OF THESE LEVELS MAY SEE TREND DEVELOPING IN NIFTY,TILL THEN ITS BUY NEAR 5020 AND SELL NEAR 5180 WITH SMALL SL ON EITHER SIDE..

NS VIEWS

RES:5132-5147-5161
SUP:5105-5090-5071

TOMMORROW AGAIN NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY REMAIN CHOPPY IN 5090-5137 RANGE, BUT IN LATER PART OF DAY MAY BREAK THIS RANGE TO BECOME TREND DECIDER DAY
NIFTY MAY GIVE BREAKOUT FROM 5137-5090 RANGE TOMORROW FOR SHARP 30-40 PTS MOVE EITHER WAY.

BUY ABOVE 5122 WITH SL 5111 FOR TRGTS 5132-5147-5161..
ABV 5161 IF SUSTAINS MAY INVITE SHORT COVERING FOR TGTS 5180-90

SELL BELOW 5110 WITH SL 5121 FOR TRGTS 5105-5090-5071.
.5090 HAS FORMED A HUGE SUPPORT FOR INTRADAY ,IF BREAKS WITH VOLUME THEN SOME SUPPORT MAY COME NEAR 5071 BELOW WHICH THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES OF RETEST OF 5020-30 IN NEXT 2 DAYS

NS VIEWS:
RES:5118-5132-5147
SUP:5084-5060-5040

TOMM NIFTY MAY SEE SOME VOLATILITY AFTER AN INSIDE DAY TODAY IN 5094-5132 RANGE.

TOMMORROW NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5132-5060 RANGE..
BUY ABV 5108..FOR TGTS 5118-5132-5147 WITH SL 5094
SELL BELOW 5093 FOR TGTS 5084-5060-5040 WITH SL 5107

IF NIFTY OPENS WITH POSITIVE BIAS ABOVE 5108 BUT DIDNOT NOT SUSTAIN ABOVE 5118 THEN CAN BE SHORTED THERE WITH SL ABV 5147 FOR LOWER TGTS NEAR 5060-5040.IF TRADE ABOVE 5118 THEN SHORT NEAR 5132 WITH SL ABOVE 5147 OR 5161..

NIFTY IS STILL HOLDING HIGHEST O.I IN 5100CE AND 5000PE WITH O.I OF 75LAKHS AND 92 LAKHS RESPECTIVELY.TODAY 5100CE SAW HIGHEST ADDITION OF 6.7LAKHS AND 5000 PE SAW ADDITION OF 12.2 LAKHS..
INDIA VIX AT 20.80 AND O.I DATAS INDICATING SOME HUGE VOLATILITY IN COMING DAYS

DAILY CHARTS ARE INDICATING SOME WEAKNESS MAY BE SEEN TOMORROW COUPLED WITH NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES IN HOURLY CHARTS

IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5080 THEN MORE WEAKNESS MAY BE SEEN FOR TGTS 5025-4977 IN NEXT 2 DAYS

NS VIEWS:
RES:5147-5161-5177
SUP:5110-5092-5071

TOMMORROW NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5071 -5147 RANGE,

BUY ABOVE 5132 WITH SL 5118 FOR TGTS 5147-5161-5177
SELL BELOW 5117 WITH SL 5131 FOR TGTS 5092-5080-5071

IF AT OPEN NIFTY DOES NOT CROSS ABOVE 5132 AND SUSTAINS THEN CAN BE SHORTED THERE WITH SL JUST ABOVE 5161..AS HOURLY CHARTS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES AND NIFTY MAY BE DUE FOR SOME CORRECTION OF 60-70 POINTS.


TOMORROW IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5071 THEN SHORT POSITION CAN BE CARRIED FOR WEDNESDAY,MAY EXPECT SOME GAP DOWN OPENING AND RETEST OF 4980 LEVELS SOON.

FII BOUGHT 948 CR IN F&O
FII BOUGHT 1132 CR IN CASH
DII SOLD 569 CR
SGX NIFTY CLOSED @ 5103/5129(INTRADAY HIGH-5153)
VIX-20.73
PCR-1.07
$ INDEX-80.425(PREV CLOSE-80.50)

NIFTY 5100CE AND 5000PE STILL HOLDS HIGHEST O.I WITH 73.6 AND 80 LAKHS RESPECTIVELY. TODAY IN CALLS 5200CE SAW HIGHEST ADDITION IN O.I WITH 9.3 LAKHS WHILE IN PUTS 5000PE & STRANGELY 5200PE SAW HIGHEST ADDITION IN O.I WITH NEAR 10.5 LAKHS EACH.

AFTER BUDGET DAY FIIS HAVE BEEN BUYING HUGE WITH AN INVESTMENT OF NEAR 4300CR SO FAR,AT THE SAME TIME DIIS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE SELLERS SINCE BUDGET DAY...
WHO WILL WIN AT END OR ARE THEY (FII)PLAYING SOME GAME TO ATTRACT(OR SUCK) RETAIL INVESTORS TO SEE SOME BASKET SELLING LATER????

___BIG UPMOVE OR BIG CRASH IN COMING DAYS___

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:
RES:5151-5182-5224
SUP:5040-5008-4967

NEXT WEEK NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO TRADE IN 5183-4980 RANGE,IN LAST UPMOVE 5183 FORMED A FORMIDABLE RESISTANCE AND AGAIN MORE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO COME NEAR 5177-5194 LEVELS,IF BREAKS ABOVE 5194 THEN 5224-5252 WILL BE STRONG RESISTANCE ZONE,
NIFTY 5100CE HAS HIGHEST O.I AT 70.8 LAKHS AND ALSO SAW AN ADDITION OF NEAR 15LAKHS OF O.I IN SINGLE DAY ON 5TH MARCH.
VIX AT 20.74 ALSO INDICATING SOME CAUTION AT HIGHER LEVELS WHERE NIFTY MAY FIND DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN.

IF DRIFTS BELOW 5080...5050-5040 WILL GIVE SOME SUPPORT TO NIFTY ,BELOW IT PREVIOUS LOW OF 5008 WILL SEE STRONG SUPPORT,(NIFTY 5000 PE HAS ALSO HIGHEST O.I WHICH ALSO INDICATES STRONG SUPPORT NEAR 5000 ON CLOSING BASIS),ANY WEAKNESS BELOW 5008 WILL SEE NIFTY DRIFTING DOWN TOWARDS 4967-4982 WHERE CONFLUENCE OF EMAS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT.

FII BOUGHT 378 CR IN F&O
FII BOUGHT 634 CR IN CASH
DII SOLD 636 CR
SGX NIFTY CLOSED @ 5088/5090(HI-5099.5)
VIX-20.98
PCR-1.21
$ INDEX-80.68

NS VIEWS:
RES:5109-5135-5151
SUP:5050-5035-5022

BUY ABV 5098,SELL BELOW 5070

TOMM NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT AND MAY TRADE IN 5109-5050 RANGE..
IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 5025 MAY SHOW SOME WEAKNESS NEXT WEEK
AND IF CLOSES ABOVE 5070 MAY BE SEEN AS BULLISH FOR NEXT WEEK

METAL STOCKS MAY SHOW SOME WEAKNESS TOMMORROW

FII BOUGHT 2817 CR IN F&O
FII BOUGHT 1335 CR IN CASH
DII SOLD 977 CR
SGX NIFTY CLOSED @5044/5057(MADE AN INTRADAY HI OF5083 )
VIX-21.63(SUGGESTING STABILITY)
$ INDEX-80.51

NS VIEWS:
RES:5032-5053-5077
SUP:4993-4972-4952

TOMMORROW NIFTY MAY OPEN FLAT WITH POSITIVE BIAS AND MAY TRADE IN 4993-5053 LEVELS.
TOMM IF NIFTY MOVES UP AFTER OPEN IT CAN BE SHORTED NEAR 5050-60RANGE WITH SL ABV 5080 FOR TGTS 5028-5012-4993..SOME SMALL DOWNSIDE IS EVEN MORE POSSIBLE TILL 4982-77 RANGE....BUT ITS BETTER TO START BUYING NF NEAR 4993 LVLS.
NOW 4952 WILL FORM A STRONG SUPPORT FOR COMING DAYS..TILL THEN ITS BUY AT EVERY DIPS NEAR 4952-4965

IF OPENS WEAK MAY SEE NIFTY DRIFTING DOWN TOWARDS 4993-4982 WHERE IT CAN BE BOUGHT FOR HIGHER LEVELS TILL 5053..TOMMOROW EXPECT NIFTY TO REMAIN CHOPPY AFTER TWO DAYS OF UPMOVE.

SEEING TODAYS PATTERN IT SEEMS THAT ACTION MAY BE AGAIN SHIFTING TO MIDCAP AND HIGH BETA STOCKS FOR COMING DAYS

NS VIEWS:

RES:4952-4994-5020
SUP:4897-4860-4835

TOMM NIFTY MAY OPEN WITH POSITIVE BIAS AND MAY BE VERY VOLATILE AS IT WILL BE FIRST TRADING DAY AFTER BUDGET ANNOUNCEMENTS, TOMMORROW IF OPENS GAP UP MAY FACE AN INITIAL RESISTANCE NEAR 4965-4975 RANGE,IF MOVES ABOVE AND SUSTAINS THEN MAY SEE TARGETS OF 4994-5020,WHERE NIFTY CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABV 5045,FOR TGTS 4952-4912 IN COMING DAYS.
IF NIFTY DOES NOT CROSS ABV 4975 THEN CAN BE SHORTED WITH SL ABV 4994 FOR TGTS 4912-4897-4860..

TILL NS IS ABOVE 4860 IT IS BUY ON DIPS WITH SL NEAR 4835..

NIFTY 5000 CE AND 4800PE HAVE HIGHEST O.I INDICATING A RANGE OF 4777-5020, BREAK OUT OF THESE RANGE MAY GIVE SOME SHARP MOVES IN THAT DIRECTION.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:
RES:4992-5080-5180
SUP:4835-4748-4675
LAST WEEK ON BUDGET DAY NIFTY BROKE THE CRUCIAL RESISTANCE OF 4952(MADE A HIGH OF 4992)BUT COULD NOT CLOSE ABOVE IT,BREAKOU WAS WITH GOOD VOLUME MAKING THAT RESISTANCE MORE FRAGILE NOW,WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL CUES IT LOOKS CERTAINLY FOR NIFTY TO BREAK 4952.
TWO CLOSE ABOVE 4952 WILL RENDER NIFTY BULLISH FOR SHORT TERM FOR TARGETS
5032-5080-5180.
4835 HAS FORMED STRONG SUPPORT FOR ANY CORRECTION THIS WEEK.UNLESS GLOBAL CUES ARE NOT VERY WEAK NIFTY MAY NOR BREAK THIS SUPPORT.IF BREAKS THEN 4748 IS NEXT IMPORTANT WEEKLY SUPPORT.

NEXT WEEK NIFTY IS EXPECTED TO TRADE IN 4835-5080 RANGE...AND IF NIFTY SEES A WEEKLY CLOSE ABV 5032..THEN EXPECT SOME BIG UPMOVE IN COMING WEEKS FOR 5180-5322