EVENTFUL WEEK AHEAD

1ST NOV-5TH NOV.

NEXT WEEK MARKETS MAY REMAIN IN TIGHT RANGE AHEAD OF FED MEET ON 3RD NOV.,AND ALSO U.S MIDTERM ELECTIONS ON 2ND NOV.

ON 3RD NOV Mr.BERNANKE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE DETAILS OF QE2

RBI WILL ALSO ANNOUNCE ITS QUARTERLY MONETARY POLICY ON 2ND NOV AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RATES UNCHANGED OR AT MAXIMUM THEY MAY INCREASE @25BPS SO MAY TURNOUT TO BE A NON EVENT BUT ANY POSITIVE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM RBI CHAIRMAN MAY SEE SOME BULLISHNESS

MARKETS WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON 5TH NOVEMBER DUE TO DIWALI HOLDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A ONE HOUR SPECIAL MUHURAT TRADING SESSION BETWEEN 6PM AND 7 PM

COAL INDIA LISTING ON 4TH NOVEMBER

STOCKS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK:CUMMINS,GLENMARK,MARUTI,DLF,DISH TV,UNITECH

Month of November has historically seen huge NIFTY volatility as can be seen from the table [refer below]
NIFTY on an average has witnessed an absolute average move of about 12.9%
Thus for Nov-2010, we may expect the NIFTY to witness similar trend as in the past.

Date: Abs Volatility %(High/Low)
30/11/1999 14.4
30/11/2000 8.8
29/11/2001 12.7
29/11/2002 11.7
28/11/2003 8.0
30/11/2004 10.5
30/11/2005 15.2
30/11/2006 6.4
30/11/2007 11.4
28/11/2008 29.5
30/11/2009 13.2

Average: 12.9

Maximum: 29.5

Minimum: 6.4

source: a friend

NIFTY DAILY CHARTS

NEXT WEEK IN U.S

A busy economic week kicks off with Existing home sales at 10:00 on monday.
Tuesday, we have Case-Shiller home prices, Consumer confidence and then the FHFA home price index. On wednesday, Durable goods orders and New home sales.
Then on thursday the weekly Jobless claims.
On friday our first look at Q3 GDP, then Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment. As for the FED.
On monday FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech in Arlington, VA. at 8:30. The GDP report may be okay since there is little activity scheduled for the FED this week.

INTRADAY TRADING RANGE

N

INTRADAY TRADING RANGE

EXPANDING TRIANGLE PATTERN IN NIFTY

NIFTY IS MAKING AN EXPANDING TRIANGLE

PATTERN WHICH HAS SUPPORT NEAR 6030 AND RESISTANCE NEAR 6310 ,MAY SEE BIG VOLATILITY IN 6030-6310 RANGE,BELOW 6030 NIFTY HAS SUPPORT IN 5965-5937

COMPARISON OF NIFTYS UPMOVE FROM MARCH 2009 AND SEPTEMBER 2010

WATCH THESE TWO CHARTS OF NIFTY SPOT

NIFTY IS TRYING TO MAKE SIMILAR PATTERN IN UPMOVE FROM SEPTEMBER 2010(TOP) AS WAS BEING MADE IN UPMOVE FROM MARCH 2009(BOTTOM ).

13DEMA IS BEING MOST CRITICAL LEVELS IN THIS UPMOVE,TILL NIFTY DOES NOT CLOSE BELOW 13DEMA ITS BUY ON ALL DIPS IF NIFTY TRADES NEAR 13DEMA WITH SMALL SL

TODAY ITS 10/10/10

INTRADAY 5 MIN. CHARTS

NIFTY IS TRADING IN TRIANGLE PATTERN,SHORTLY MAY SEE NIFTY BREAKING OUT FROM THIS PATTERN
IF BREAKS ON UPSIDE MAY TARGET FOR 6195-6205-6222
IF BREAKS ON DOWNSIDE MAY TARGET FOR 6156-6138-6120

NIFTY 30 MINUTE AND 10 MINUTE CHARTS

NIFTY 5 MIN CHARTS

FII ACTIVITY

Super Sept: FIIs net buy Rs 29.19bn in equities so far

The Indian bourses were on a rampage in the month of September with benchmarks having rallied for fifth consecutive week on back of steady inflow of funds from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). The Nifty added 734.7 points (13.58%) and the Sensex 2446.63 points (13.59%) during the same period.

The strong performance displayed by the Indian markets reaffirmed the confidence among investors abroad. As of September 29, 2010, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 4,755.80 crore in equities. They made gross purchase of Rs 10,917.80 crore and gross sales of Rs 6,162 crore.

In the month of September so far, FIIs were net buyers of Rs 29,195.80 crore.

However, on the domestic side, as of September 28, 2010, mutual funds (MFs) were net sellers to the tune of Rs 567.90 crore in equities. They made gross purchase of Rs 467 crore and gross sales of Rs 1,034.90 crore

In the month of September so far, MFs were net sellers of Rs -5,606.30 crore.

The Sensex gained 14% in the month of September. Meanwhile, market participants may take a cautious stance stepping into October as historically this month has been a bit difficult. October is the only month with mostly negative return since 1990.

NIFTY DAILY CHANNEL CHARTS

TWO PROBABILITIES FOR NIFTYS MOVE IN OCTOBER 2010

1.NIFTY MAY MAKE AN INTERMEDIATE HIGH IN 6211-6229 RANGE AND MAY SEE SOME CORRECTION (CONSOLIDATION)FOR MAKING WAY TO BIGGER UPMOVE AFTER THAT,MAY TRADE IN
6211-5880-6100-5830-6270
THIS VIEW WILL BE NEGATED IF NIFTY CLOSES ABOVE 6270

2.IF CLOSES ABOVE 6270 THEN 6040 WILL BECOME A VERY STRONG SUPPORT FOR NIFTY AND NIFTY MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE UP IN COMING DAYS MAKING HIGHER HIGHS WITH TRGTS 6304-6357-6401-6511......6900+

NIFTY DAILY AND 30 MIN CHARTS